財會英語:中國保障房建設的裂縫

2017-07-04 10:56 來源:網友分享
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Cracks are starting to appear in China's drive to build low-income housing as concerns rise that a rush to meet government targets is making for shoddy construction, fears made more intense after a train crash last month highlighted the speed with which China carries out many of its infrastructure projects.

中國推動保障房建設的行動正在出現裂縫。人們越來越擔心,由于趕著實現政府制訂的目標,造成建筑質量低劣。上個月發生的動車事故凸顯了中國很多基礎設施項目的高速度,也讓這種擔憂進一步加劇。

The massive state-led investment was supposed to head off social unrest as urban home prices spiraled out of reach of ordinary workers. And many economists forecast that the spending on cheap housing would cushion the impact on the Chinese economy as the government tried to deflate a bubble at the luxury end of the market.

這項由政府主導的大規模投資旨在防止社會動蕩,因為城市房價已經上漲到普通勞動者望塵莫及的水平。很多經濟學家還預測,在政府力圖刺破高端房地產市場泡沫之際,投資保障房將為中國經濟起到緩沖作用。

But far from being a magic bullet, the low-income housing push is creating its own problems at a time when a stubbornly high inflation rate is constraining China's ability to spend its way out of another global downturn.

Xinhua/Zuma Press圍繞中國保障房建設的擔憂正在加劇。圖為貴陽市桐木嶺的廉租房項目。但保障房不是神彈。由于通貨膨脹率居高不下,中國很難再依靠投資沖出新一輪全球衰退,在這個時候,保障房建設本身制造了一些問題。

Premier Wen Jiabao rolled out grand plans in March for 36 million units of public housing as part of China's current five-year plan from 2011 to 2015. But a report by the state-run Xinhua news agency in May raised alarm bells about the plans' progress, saying construction had begun on only 30% of this year's target of 10 million units.

作為中國當前五年規劃(2011年至2015年)的一部分,國務院總理溫家寶在今年3月推出建設3,600萬套保障房的宏偉計劃。但官方媒體新華社5月份一篇報道為這一計劃的進展敲響了警鐘。報道說,今年1,000萬套任務當中,已經開工的只有30%。

Since then, the push appears to have speeded up. In July, Premier Wen said construction on more than half of the 10 million targeted units had begun.

自那以來,保障房建設似乎已經加速。溫家寶7月份說,這1,000萬套中開工的已過半。

In recent weeks, several reports of shoddy workmanship on low-income housing have appeared in state media, raising concerns about safety and suggesting that the flagship project may have to proceed more slowly than expected.

近幾周,多篇有關保障房劣質工程的報道見諸官方媒體,引起安全擔憂,暗示這個大項目可能需要按低于預期的速度推進。

“If low-income housing construction is blindly devoted to speed, then like the frequent accidents we've seen recently, problems will keep occurring...and potentially even end in tragedy,” said an article in the People's Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, on July 27.

中國共產黨機關報《人民日報》7月27日一篇文章說:“如果保障房建設一味追求速度,蘿卜快了不洗泥,很容易像最近頻頻出事的某些工程,建成后問題不斷,甚至發生事故、釀成悲劇。”

The article appeared just days after the July 23 high-speed train accident that killed 40 people and injured almost 200 near Wenzhou in eastern China. The accident gave rise to a wave of popular anger and accusations that the new rail network had been developed too quickly and without enough focus on quality and safety.

這篇文章發表之前數日的7月23日,溫州附近發生了造成40人死亡、近200人受傷的動車事故。事故引起一片民憤,公眾譴責說,新的鐵路系統建設過快,對質量和安全重視不足。

The People's Daily article didn't specifically mention the train crash. China has also been plagued by a spate of fatalities on major construction projects this year.

《人民日報》文章沒有特別提到這起動車事故。今年中國還發生過多起重大建設項目致人死亡的事故。

A recent statement on the website of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development called on officials to “draw hard lessons from the July 23 Wenzhou rail accident, and ensure the safe construction and quality management of low-income housing and public works.”

中國住房和城鄉建設部近期在其網站上的一份公告中要求各級官員“深刻吸取“7?23”甬溫線動車追尾等事故教訓,做好保障性住房和市政工程的建設安全生產和質量管理。”

The concerns surrounding the low-income housing push adds to worries over the outlook for the Chinese economy, and by extension the global economy, which is heavily dependent on China for growth. On Tuesday, China reported unexpectedly high consumer inflation of 6.5% in July, its highest level in over three years, and faster than the 6.4% year-on-year level in June.

籠罩在推動保障房建設上的憂慮使中國經濟、甚至全球經濟的前景更令人擔憂,因為全球經濟的增長嚴重依賴于中國。周二,中國公布7月份消費者通脹指數意外達到6.5%,是三年來的最高水平,高于6月份6.4%的同比增幅。

In 2008, Beijing helped support a faltering global economy by unleashing a wave of bank lending that fueled China's construction industry─and commodity exporters everywhere. Now, with global markets buckling under concerns of a double-dip recession in the U.S. and sovereign-debt woes in Europe, China's high inflation means it can't perform a similar trick without watching prices shoot up further.

2008年,中國實施了一輪刺激建筑業的銀行借貸,幫助支撐了衰退中的全球經濟以及各大宗商品出口國。現在,全球市場因對美國出現雙底衰退及歐洲主權債務問題的擔憂而不堪重負,而高通脹意味著中國不能無視物價進一步飆升而再次表演類似戲法。

Finding the cash to fund low-income housing developments is also proving problematic, with local governments cash-strapped from their recent infrastructure building binge, and banks, already constrained in their lending, preferring to give loans to higher-margin projects.

為保障房建設尋找資金也是問題重重,地方政府因近期大量進行基礎設施建設而資金緊張,同時,借貸已經受到抑制的銀行則更愿意將貸款提供給利潤率更高的項目。

On Tuesday, Tan Huajie, the board secretary of China Vanke Co., the country's largest property developer by market share, said that the tighter liquidity in the sector was discouraging investment. Vanke saw first-half profit rise 5.9%, a better performance that many of its peers. Analysts say Vanke's relative success compared with its peers─its first-half profit rose 5.9%─is partly due to its focus on selling small and midsize homes in China's less-developed cities, a market segment only recently affected by government restrictions on lending.

周二,中國萬科集團董事會秘書譚華杰說,房地產行業流動性緊縮正在打消投資信心。萬科是按市場份額計算中國最大的房地產開發商。萬科上半年利潤增長5.9%,表現優于許多同行。分析師說,萬科相對于其他同行的成功,即上半年利潤增長5.9%,部分是由于萬科集中在中國欠發達城市銷售中小戶型房屋。政府最近才開始對這部分市場的借貸進行限制。

Developers are chafing at thin margins for low-income housing. Vanke President Yu Liang said that his company has started construction on more than three million square meters of public housing, but that the profit margin on those developments is only 2%. Analysts say the profit margin for developers on a typical residential development is about 30%.

開發商對保障房的薄利感到頭疼。萬科總裁郁亮說,公司已經開始建設300多萬平米的保障房,但這些房屋的利潤率只有2%。分析師說,開發商在一個一般性住宅開發項目上的利潤率在30%左右。

Mr. Yu said Vanke would continue to contribute to the public good as long as it didn't hurt shareholders' interests.

郁亮說,只要不損害股東的利益,萬科會繼續為公共福利做貢獻。

Some analysts say that local governments are inflating the numbers of low-income housing they are bringing online by including university dormitories and refurbished older buildings.

一些分析師說,地方政府抬高了網上統計的保障房數字,大學宿舍和翻新的老房子也被包含在內。

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